We publish forecast and actual impact across our evidence portfolio — and update it as results come in.
Within our Evidence Fund, we fund and evaluate approaches to build evidence on their impact and cost-effectiveness in coffee-growing communities.
In the spirit of transparency, we want to provide insights not only when a project has ended, but also in between: to share what we expect, to provide a basis for discussion, and to signal when the evidence will be ready.
Our Evidence Portfolio
Our Evidence Fund has supported the following organizations and approaches, past and present. Since most projects are still ongoing or in the evaluation phase, the figures are projections rather than final results.
Click “Unblock content” to access our live impact dashboards.
You are currently viewing a placeholder content from Default. To access the actual content, click the button below. Please note that doing so will share data with third-party providers.
More InformationHow to read the numbers:
All figures use present value over 10 years, discounted at 10%, deflated to 2021 EUR.
- #Cost/HH: total program costs needed for implementation, divided by the number of program participants.
- % Income increase: income gain per household relative to median baseline annual household consumption expenditure.
- € Income increase: absolute income gain per household.
Social Return on Investment
For each project, we model income gains and cost-effectiveness based on our Social Return on Investment (SROI) methodology.
The projects span two stages: some are still under evaluation, with forecast SROI and income projections based on our upfront modelling; others have initial evaluation results available to establish an evaluative SROI.
As most models are based on assumptions, we estimate the upper- and lower-bound SROI estimates and visualize their potential range. This reflects the uncertainties attached to these kinds of models. It also shows whether the model reflects a more optimistic or conservative scenario.
Click “Unblock content” to access our live impact dashboards.
You are currently viewing a placeholder content from Default. To access the actual content, click the button below. Please note that doing so will share data with third-party providers.
More InformationHow to read the numbers:
All figures use present value over 10 years, discounted at 10%, deflated to 2021 EUR.
Read more about how we calculate SROI and access our SROI Manual here.
Cost-effectiveness vs. depth of impact
In addition to SROI, we track two other dimensions: depth and scale of impact.
A high SROI signals cost-effectiveness, but relative income gains tell us whether the change is meaningful for a household — the depth of impact. To assess the scale of impact we look at the number of households reached by the project.
The ideal project would score well on all dimensions, sitting in the upper-right corner with a large target group.
Click “Unblock content” to access our live impact dashboards.
You are currently viewing a placeholder content from Default. To access the actual content, click the button below. Please note that doing so will share data with third-party providers.
More InformationHow to read the numbers:
Each bubble represents one funded program.
- The horizontal axis shows the SROI — the additional household income generated for project participants per euro invested.
- The vertical axis shows the relative income gain per household in relation to the median annual baseline household consumption expenditure.
- The bubble size reflects the number of households reached: a larger bubble means more households benefit from the project.
Two cases that illustrate the range of certainty in our portfolio — and how we reason about it.
TechnoServe: Jimma Coffee Program
Ethiopia — 2021-2025
The current SROI estimate of the Jimma Coffee Program (TNS03) is 6,3. Existing data has informed our model, with important caveats: the endline for the first cohort is available but with methodological limitations and missing rigorous yield estimates for stumped trees — a key impact driver. A second evaluation round and a separate yield study are underway, with results expected by the end of 2026.
Until then, we treat the forecast with caution and will update the model once new data arrives. This iterative refinement is part of how we work.
Learn more about the project.
Raising The Village: Pathways out of Poverty
Uganda — 2024-2026
In our current portfolio, this project (RTV01) shows the strongest projected results: the highest SROI at 8,4, the highest relative income increase at 10% per household, and costs per household that remain in the mid-range at €127. At the same time, we treat these projections with cautious confidence. The model draws on internal M&E data and one RCT that was conducted outside coffee-farming communities and shows high sensitivity to changes in key assumptions. What excites us is whether these strong effects will hold specifically for coffee-farming households — a context that has not yet been tested at this scale. Endline results are expected in early 2028.
Learn more about the project.
A higher SROI does not automatically mean a better program.
Each number is a starting point for discussion.
Evidence-based iteration: the case of TechnoServe
Not every project delivers what we hoped for. Our earliest investment with TechnoServe — the Sidama Coffee Program (TNS01) — produced an evaluative SROI below the threshold we consider cost-effective.
We treated the result as a starting point. Together with TechnoServe, we analysed what drove the gap between expectation and outcome: weak stumping uptake, limited yield effects and an evaluation methodology that left key assumptions unverified. Those insights shaped the design of the successor project, the Jimma Coffee Program (TNS03) — with stumping incentives built into the programme design and a more rigorous evaluation framework.
The Jimma Coffee Program is currently in evaluation, with first results informing an updated forecast SROI of 6.3. Whether that forecast holds will tell us whether the lessons from Sidama have translated into real improvement.
Read the full learning article: Same Approach, Different Outcomes: What We Learned from Sidama & Jimma
Join the learning process
We share findings as they emerge, invite feedback and believe that early conversations shape better outcomes.
If you are a funder, a coffee company, or an organisation working in coffee-growing communities — we want to hear from you. We regularly share portfolio updates with interested funders and welcome early conversations about co-funding or knowledge exchange.